Punters Free Picks

This is the corner line we got yesterday. Have not looked where the line stand as of now, but we think this will be closer to 15 corners, so 3 units pretty much any line you can find :>)

Two promotion candidates clash here. Both play plenty unders, especially against stronger opposition. On top of that Leeds got two important offensive absentees.

Both teams are of to a better start than expected. Sonderjyske will relish any point they can take from any game… survivel is the declaired goal and it’s already looking good. AGF have had plenty of players in international action and they could easily find themselves somewhat fatigued and having difficulty creating the pace to unlock the defensive minded home team.

Burnley have injury crisis while Spurs have plenty of attacking power and somesthing to prove after being denied from the top-contenders by Chelsea and Man City.

Arsenal are most likely giving returns to Van Persie and Arshavin… they also have something to prove if they want to stick to the top.

Season start for College Football. Boise did well last year, but the team has been weakened by seniors that left. Replacements are nowhere near same quality. Oregon have had their share of changes too, but in total the strength of their squad should remain much the same. While lines posted would have been spot on for last years squads we fell that the market has not been able to take into account the changes that has taken place.

These lines might be difficult to get. Haven’t checked the last couple of hours.

C. Rochus simply cannot play on clay and Cuevas serving will take this one home, no sweat.

Spadea is in the most terrible form. His body simply cannot keep up anymore. The nine year younger Capdeville hasn’t got much to show for on faster surfaces, but at least he has prepared with at couple of grass tourny’s. It is time for Cappy to get his first win against Spadea (0-2) and his first Wimby win.

Dimitrov is the name to remember for the years to come. The Bulgarian won Wimby Juniors last year and this year he has competed with strong performances against the likes of Berdych and Nadal of fast surfaces.

Serena has got one hell of a draw. Currently there really isn’t any of the women standing out as a clear favorite to take the title.

Serena hasn’t produced much during clay, but she were struggling with injuries and these days she is much better suited for faster surfaces where her power bare maximum impact. She hasn’t played any warm-up for Wimbledon, but she never does and coming in rested can have plenty advantage - especially given a gifted draw.

There should be no reason to worry before the final.

ATP:

Becker - Santoro, Score(1-2) @ 4.25, 2 Units

Garcia-Lopez - Tursunov, Garcia-Lopez @ 2.43, 2 Units

WTA:

Safina - Tanasugarn, Tanasugarn(set hcp) +1.5 @  2.72, 2 Units

Safina - Tanasugarn, Tanasugarn @ 5.10, 2 Units

Wonzniaki - Wozniak, Under 20.5 @ 1.88, 2 Units

Albania - Portugal, Under 2.5 @ 1.94, 2 Units

Azerbaijan - Wales, (1st Half) Under 0.5/1 @ 2.05, 2 Units

Finland - Liechtenstein, (HTFT) home/home @ 1.45, 2 Units

Federer - Monfils, Monfils pk @ 4.00, 1 Unit

Federer - Monfils, Monfils (1st set) @ 3.38, 1 Unit

Murray - Gonzalez, Gonzalez pk @ 2.44, 2 Units

Murray - Cilic, Cilic (1st set) @ 2.754, 1 Unit

Davydenko - Verdasco, Davydenko pk @ 2.73, 2 Units

Sharapova - Na Li, Na Li pk @ 2.06, 2 Units

Vejle - AGF Aarhus, Vejle -0.5 @ 2.95, 2 Units

Hercules - Celta Vigo, Hercules -1 @ 2.075, 2 Units

Palermo - Sampdoria, (1st Half) Palermo -0/0.5 @ 2.17, 2 Units

FCN - AaB, FCN -0.5 @ 2.25, 2 Units

Chelsea - Everton, Chelsea Win To Nil @ 2.50, 1 Unit

Chelsea - Everton, Everton Under 0.5/1 @ 1.76, 1 Unit

Chelsea - Everton, Chelsea(Trophy) @ 1.426, 2 Units

Chelsea - Everton, Chelsea ( Scores 1-0 in 1st Half ) @ 3.808, 1 Unit

Federer - Mathieu, (Set HCP) Mathieu +2.5 @ 2.614, 2 Units

Melzer - Monfils, Over 37.5 @ 1.86, 1 Unit

Melzer - Monfils, Melzer pk @ 3.26, 1 Unit

Roddick - Gicquel, (1st set) Gicquel @  3.70, 1 Unit

WTA:

Loit - Bacsinszky, Loit @ 1.76, 2 units

Salerni - Barrois, Salerni @ 3.00, 1 unit

ATP:

Sela - Lisnard, Lisnard @ 1.80, 2 units

Granollers - Ouanna, Ouanna @ 2.55, 2 units

Polansky - Petzschner, Polansky @ 1.75, 2 units

Amiens - Dijon, Over 2/2.5 @ 1.90, 2 Units

Clermont - Bastia, Over 2/2.5 @ 1.962, 2 Units

Lens - Boulogne, Over 2.5 @ 2.10, 2 Units

Nimes - Vannes, Over 2/2.5 @ 1.862, 2 Units

Troyes - Sedan, Over 2/2.5 @ 1.833, 2 Units

Half-time, Hacken - Helsingborg, helsingborg -0/0.5 @ 2.17, 2 units

Full-time, Hacken - Helsingborg, helsingborg -0.5 @ 2.06, 1 unit

Helsingborg are promotion killers…. they don’t have a welcoming attitude towards newcomers to AllSvenskan. Generally Helsingborg does very well away from home against the bottom half teams and they don’t wait for the home team to open up – even away from home they go full speed to take advantage of their superiority over lower ranked teams. Hacken have fought heroically in their first games in the league, but today they will have to do without Ostberg in defense and Paulinho who is probably their strongest player.

GAIS - IFK, under 2.5 @ 1.9, 2 units

This lokal derby has a tradition for intensive fight at the cost of goals. Both teams generally play a lost lowscoring games home/away respectively.

Gijon - Malaga, Malaga +0/0.5 @ 1.90, 2 units

Espanyol - Bilbao, Bilbao +1 @ 1.90, 3 units

Gijon and Espanyol are both in the relegation battle, but Malaga could still be fighting for a European spot and while Bilbao has nothing to fight for there is no evidence that they are not going to put up a fight against an injury plauqed Espanyol - 1 goal on the asian handicap is too much!

Del Potro - Wawrinka, Wawrinka @ 2.90, 2 Units

Monaco - Verdasco, Monaco @ 2.60, 2 Units

Ahlen - TUS Koblenz, Ahlen ML @ 1.962, 2 Units

Dallas - Denver, Under 210 @ 1.952, 2 Units

Atlanta - Cleveland, Atlanta +10 @ 1.96, 3 Units

These went against us on saturday. Now we get even better lines…

Bury - Shrewsbury Town, Over 2 @ 1.88, 2 Units

Torino - Bologna, Torino -0.5 @ 2.052, 1 Unit

AC Milan - Juventus, (1st Half) Under 1 @ 2.05, 2 Units

Atl Madrid - Espanyol, Atl -1 @ 2.538, 1 Unit

Dallas - Denver, Under 209 @ 2.00, 3 Units

Atlanta - Cleveland, Atlanta +8 @ 2.05, 3 Units

Atlanta - Cleveland, Under 180 @ 2.03, 1 Unit

Cleveland totally dominated Atlanta at home, but as we have pointed out before… home court advantage is more significant in the NBA than any other pro sport. Atlanta is underrated by the vast majority of people while Cleveland is hyped, together with Cleveland’s domination at home and a few knock to Atlanta players, has made the line-makers move the hcp out of proportion for this game. Atlanta are only 17-29 away from home this season, while they are 34-11 at home. The last four times Atlanta has hosted Cleveland they got the win twice along with two narrow defeats. If you think Cleveland is way to dominant then let us remind you the scenario from last year’s playoff, when Atlanta lost with very similar numbers to Boston in the first two games, but still managed to get wins in all of their three home games in the series vs. Boston. Home court advantage in NBA is huge and especially Atlanta is day and night.

Orlando - Boston, Orlando -4.5 @ 2.04, 2 Units

Orlando - Boston, Under 189 @ 1.99, 3 Units

It’s time to cash in on what we learned about the Celtic’s from their series against Chicago. Orlando is currently looking like the better team of these two, which they showed in game one. What happened in game two was a typical reaction of from the road dog been somewhat complacent having won one away game and now looking forward for their home games. Boston struggled largely against the Bulls and now they are up against a team with just as strong an offense, but much better defense. The total look influenced by the Boston OT’s against the Bulls. Only one of the last five H2H vs. these teams has gone over 189 and without Garnett we think they need another OT to pass 189 tonight.

Shrewsbury - Bury, (1st Half) Under 0.5/1 @ 2.149, 2 Units

Arsenal - Man Utd, Under 2/2.5 @ 2.02, 2 Units

Arsenal - Man Utd, Arsenal ML @ 2.07, 2 Units

Vannes - Chateauroux, CHA +0/0.5 @ 1.82, 2 Units

Safina - Kuznetsova, Kuznetsova(1st set) @ 2.162, 1 Unit

Safina is 6-4 H2H against Kunznetsova, including wins in all four meetings last year. Safina hasn’t been great this year, until the last couple of weeks. The last 3 meetings between the two has been on hard court, and although Safina won convincingly at the French Open last year, the clay surface should help Kunznetsova a bit. Kunznetsova has been en great form lately and she often comes out very strong whereas Safina tend to start slower. Guess lines are not far off, but with Kunznetsova’s impressive beating of Dementieva yesterday a unit on the 1^st set is worth a try.

Burnley - Bristol City, Under 2.5 @ 2.13, 2 Units

Charlton - Norwich, Over 2.5 @ 1.901, 2 Units

Crystal Palace - Sheffield Utd, CP +0.5/1 @ 2.12, 2 Units

Ipswich - Coventry, IPS -0.5/1 @ 1.83, 3 Units

Preston NE - QPR, PNE -1 @ 2.086, 2 Units

LR Ahlen - St. Pauli, Ahlen -0/0.5 @ 1.97, 2 Units

Deportivo - Valladolid, DEP -0.5 @ 1.75, 2 Units

Last day in the English Championship and we have gone absolutely mad :>)

Ipswich is the only game of these where neither team has playoff or relegation to play for. Ipswich is the team to bet because the just hired Roy Keane who helped them take a 3-0 win in his first game in charge away from home. This will be his first game in front of the home crowd, the last game of the season and an opponent in poor form and nothing to play for. Keane has the perfect setup to prepare for a posivtive beginning to the next season.

St. Pauli is a strong team – at home. On the road they are only 2-2-10 this season and have no realistic chances of promotion or relegation with five rounds to play. Ahlen are fighting relegation which should give them enough motivation to take advantage of St. Pauli’s away struggles.

Deportivo La Coruna has a realistic chance to qualify for next year’s UEFA-cup place. Valladolid on have no European chances to play for and plenty room down to the relegation places. Valldolid’s away record is 4-1-11, with no wins in the last six and no score in the last five. On top of this they are struggling with plenty absentees today. Deportivo are especially strong at home and have a good history of hosting Valladolid.

Atlanta - Miami, Atlanta -2.5 (1st half) @ 1.909, 1 unit

Atlanta - Miami, Atlanta -5 @ 1.926, 1 unit

Denver - Dallas, Denver ML @ 1.39, 2 Units

Denver - Dallas, Under 206.5 @ 1.952, 2 Units

We have loved Atlanta throughout the series. We skipped betting them in their last home game because of fitness questions, but they still delivered prominently. Now it’s do or die and the fitness concerns are nolonger a bigger issue for Atlanta than it is for Miami. Atlanta has been highly improved over the last few years and they have totally dominated Miami at home the last two years covering 5 of seven. One no-cover (but still SU win) was last game of season with no signifiacance to it. How the line for this playoff series has been adjusted to only -5 is still beyond my comprehension.  

Denver has a strong hold on Dallas and will succeed by keeping them off the boards as much as possible… the same way they treated Spurs at home in the first round. Last three meetings between the two all went under 205 and in tight playoff mode, why shouldn’t that be the case again today.

Villarreal - Sevilla, Over 2.5 @ 1.85, 2 Units

Both have great scoring records home/away against fellow top six candidates in La Liga. H2H doesn’t favor the suggestion although the last meeting in Villareal was a 3-1 affair. However, both teams are fit in attack and somewhat banged up in the defensive end.

Kunznetsova - Dementieva, Kunznetsova @ 2.25, 2 Units

Kunznetsova - Dementieva, Kunznetsova(1st Set) @ 2.09, 2 Units

Kunznetsova is 5-4 H2H in this matchup (and 7-2 1st set!). 1st H2H was on clay back in 2004 one has been on carpet and the rest on hard court. Dementieva is pretty much equally good on all surfaces while Kunznetsova prefers clay. Last matchup was won by Dementieva in 3 close sets while the other matchups are from 2004-2007. However, since Dementieva hasn’t shown her best tennis the last 10 weeks the advantage should go to Kunznetsova.

Keothavong - Dominguez Lino, Keothavong @ 2.65, 3 Units

Murray - Monaco, Monaco(1st set) @ 3.30, 1 Unit

Karlovic - Federer, (Game HCP) Karlovic +4.5 @ 1.85, 2 Units

Karlovic - Federer, Karlovic(1st set) @ 5.10, 1 Unit

Federer is far from his best. He admits that much of the confidence is gone and preparations for this event probably haven’t been optimal as he has just entered fatherhood. Karlovic doesn’t excel on clay, but he very rarely lies flat for anyone. H2H says 7-1 Federer, but Karlovic has managed two first sets and only once did he lose by more than four games (Wimbledon, several years back). We think Federer will get the win here, but he may well get off to a slow start and we find it very difficult for Federer to brake Karlovic’s serve more than once.

Boston - Chicago, Boston -7.5 @ 1.98, 3 units

Boston - Chicago, Under 200 @ 1.91, 2 units

Orlando - Philadelphia, Orlando -8.5 @ 2.04, 3 units

San Antonio - Dallas, San Antonio -5 @ 1.952, 3 units

San Antonio - Dallas, Under 190 @ 1.90, 3 units

Portland - Houston, Houston +5.5 @ 1.962, 2 units

You probably noticed we have taken some strong stands on these Game 5’s. Going into game 5 we (usually) have the stronger team going back home. With the series nearing the end that is the time for the best teams to show what they are made of. We have liked especially Boston and Orlando from the beginning. They are two very strong home teams who has dissapointed (in the play-offs) untill now.

Boston has tried to play ball with Chicago, but it looks like they have realized they need to win this series on defense and they were very unlucky not to win game 4 in which they were 2 points up and had two free throws with seconds to go. They missed one, Chicago made the 3 pointer and took home the game in double overtime.

San Antonio and Houston have shown us some fighting and team spirit that make us believe they will prevail from their respective series.

BTW, it is defense that win games and the stronger teams will often win these do-or-die encounters (and cover) by closing out their inferior oppenents. Full units ahead.

Good Luck!

Miami - Atlanta, Atlanta +4.5 @ 2.00, 2 units

Miami - Atlanta, Under 186 @ 1.93, 1 unit

New Orleans - Denver, Under 193.5 @ 1.91, 2 Units

Chicago - Boston, Under 200 @ 2.01, 2 Units