Posted on April 29, 2009 by Anders Nielsen | Free Picks
Keothavong - Dominguez Lino, Keothavong @ 2.65, 3 Units
Murray - Monaco, Monaco(1st set) @ 3.30, 1 Unit
Karlovic - Federer, (Game HCP) Karlovic +4.5 @ 1.85, 2 Units
Karlovic - Federer, Karlovic(1st set) @ 5.10, 1 Unit
Keothavong is no eagle on the clay courts, however, today she will be up against Lino, who has just returned from a nagging injury. H2H is 1-1 with Lino winning in 2006. Koethavong has improved immensely since then and Keothavong easily won their meeting on clay about a year ago in a challenger final. Keothavong has been in Morocco since Friday and is well prepared.
Murray hasn’t impressed in the transition to clay and Monaco is no push over. Monaco loves the clay and already has accustomed to the surroundings in Rome. This should give Monaco an advantage in the first set.
Federer is far from his best. He admits that much of the confidence is gone and preparations for this event probably haven’t been optimal as he has just entered fatherhood. Karlovic doesn’t excel on clay, but he very rarely lies flat for anyone. H2H says 7-1 Federer, but Karlovic has managed two first sets and only once did he lose by more than four games (Wimbledon, several years back). We think Federer will get the win here, but he may well get off to a slow start and we find it very difficult for Federer to brake Karlovic’s serve more than once.
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Posted on April 28, 2009 by Anders Nielsen | Free Picks
A punch to the face and a kick in the balls, is what NBA had to offer yesterday.
We have liked Atlanta throughout their series vs. Miami and coming home for game 5 you should have an idea that we like them no less today. However, a combination of sudden gun-shyness and an Atlanta team somewhat banged up will make us pass on today’s baskets.
We will be back with more NBA playoff picks, when consciousness is regained.
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Posted on April 28, 2009 by Anders Nielsen | Free Picks
Boston - Chicago, Boston -7.5 @ 1.98, 3 units
Boston - Chicago, Under 200 @ 1.91, 2 units
Orlando - Philadelphia, Orlando -8.5 @ 2.04, 3 units
San Antonio - Dallas, San Antonio -5 @ 1.952, 3 units
San Antonio - Dallas, Under 190 @ 1.90, 3 units
Portland - Houston, Houston +5.5 @ 1.962, 2 units
You probably noticed we have taken some strong stands on these Game 5’s. Going into game 5 we (usually) have the stronger team going back home. With the series nearing the end that is the time for the best teams to show what they are made of. We have liked especially Boston and Orlando from the beginning. They are two very strong home teams who has dissapointed (in the play-offs) untill now.
Boston has tried to play ball with Chicago, but it looks like they have realized they need to win this series on defense and they were very unlucky not to win game 4 in which they were 2 points up and had two free throws with seconds to go. They missed one, Chicago made the 3 pointer and took home the game in double overtime.
San Antonio and Houston have shown us some fighting and team spirit that make us believe they will prevail from their respective series.
BTW, it is defense that win games and the stronger teams will often win these do-or-die encounters (and cover) by closing out their inferior oppenents. Full units ahead.
Good Luck!
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Posted on April 27, 2009 by Anders Nielsen | Free Picks
Miami - Atlanta, Atlanta +4.5 @ 2.00, 2 units
Miami - Atlanta, Under 186 @ 1.93, 1 unit
New Orleans - Denver, Under 193.5 @ 1.91, 2 Units
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Posted on April 26, 2009 by Anders Nielsen | Free Picks
Chicago - Boston, Under 200 @ 2.01, 2 Units
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Posted on April 25, 2009 by Anders Nielsen | Free Picks
New Orleans - Denver, NO -4.5 @ 1.96, 2 Units
New Orleans - Denver, Under 199 @ 1.91, 2 Units
Dallas - San Antonio, SAS +4.5 @ 2.03, 2 Units
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Posted on April 24, 2009 by Anders Nielsen | Free Picks
Houston - Portland, POR +6 @ 1.97, 2 Units
We will skip the comment today and just offer a great link for calculating halfpoint values for all american sports.
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Posted on April 24, 2009 by Anders Nielsen | Free Picks
Davydenko - Stepanek, Stepanek @ 3.00, 1 Unit
Robredo - Ferrer, Robredo @ 2.50, 1 Unit
Verdasco - Gonzalez, Gonzalez @ 2.66, 1 Unit
Stepanek is looking very determined and has had three very tough test here already. It is alway’s hard to tell which Davydenko will turn up, but his season so far hasn’t been impressive. Stepanek is 4-3 H2H here including the last three, although the games are a few years back we seems evident that the value lies with an in-form Stepanek.
Robredo – Ferrer played three close encounters last year, with Robredo coming out on top in the lastest. Robredo always seem to find an extra gear playing in Spain and especially in Barcelona. Ferrer hasn’t played at his best this year and has struggled against mediocre opponents in the first two rounds.
Verdasco has had a great start to the season, but now it’s clay time… Verdasco isn’t bad on clay, but hard court is the preferred surface. Verdasco doesn’t seem to have any advantage playing in his home country and he hasn’t looked his best in the first two rounds here, it certainly seems like a home advantage is incorporated in the line. Gonzalez isn’t half bad on hard court, but he prefers the clay. Verdasco’s worth should be declining and Gonzalez’ increasing going into the clay season, and that’s why we are finding value here.
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Posted on April 23, 2009 by Anders Nielsen | Free Picks
Chicago - Boston, BOS +2.5 @ 2.04, 1 Unit
Dallas - San Antonio, DAL -4.5 @ 1.92, 2 Unit
Boston has disappointed thus far, but we still believe in them, although for a lessor stake. They are surely missing Garnett and Chicago is handling the absence of Luo Deng impressively. However, Boston is still the stronger team and we believe they are slowly working themselves into this series… mind you, Boston took 7 games to defeat Atlanta in the 1st round last year and still went on to win the crown.
We, successfully, took San Antonio (for a single unit) in game 2 and the series is now tied 1-1. Dallas were complacent last game, having won the 1st game, they were already looking forward to taking it to home court. Dallas showed what they are made of in the first game and they will bounce back quickly.
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Posted on April 22, 2009 by Anders Nielsen | Free Picks
Atlanta - Miami, under 184 @ 1.91, 2 units
Atlanta - Miami, Atlanta -5 @ 1.97, 2 units
Denver - New Orleans, Over 196.5 @ 1.935, 1 unit
Atlanta totally dominated the 1st game. Miami had a few doubtful players who all played, but it surely looked like they were not 100%. We think the senario will be much the same for game 2. Atlanta being dominant and closing down the game in the second half…. here’s a re-run of the 1st game analysis:
Atlanta has been an improving team over the last few years and last year they took Boston to 7 games in round 1 of the playoffs. The last two years Atlanta have covered 3 of 4 at home to Miami (as 2, 8 and 9 point favorites), only failing in the last game of the season, this year. However, that last game was of no significance and the result should be taken lightly.
How the line has been adjusted to only -5 is beyond my comprehension, but Atlanta is an “under the radar” type of team that just plays great team play without too much fuzz. Miami is somewhat banged up while all Atlanta starters are fresh to go.
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