Bet over cards.

Over 45 booking point at 1,83 (eurobet) or over 55 booking points at 2.75 (partybet) holds about equal value and are easily worth 1 unit. 

Its probably worth 2 units as well, but they have fairly concervative betting limits. Referee Kyros Vassaras likes center stage and usually makes sure he is noticed. Lyon away from home is another good occation for cards, as they seem to have the ability to get anybody wound up to make a statement - and not of the friendly kind…

Zenit +0/0.5 at 1,77 (pinnacle) for 2 units. (2 units down to about 1,73)

pk (draw no bet) at 2,06 is also an option, but only 1 unit value (down to about 1,9).

Real away form - well they do not play well away from home - especially not in European competitions. This is a case of the well known international big name team being overrated.

Good Luck!

Here a couple of picks that did not make today’s newsletter because we have not been able to find satisfying game day information about line-ups. They are based solely on statistical analysis and feel.

Slovan Liberec +0.25 at 1.86, 1 unit (we see Liberec as favourites)

This bet we feel very good about. Liberec have dominated Sp. Pragh in recent years. We would be betting more units if we were sure about line-ups. However, even without line-ups we do not worry too much. It is perfectly normal that the better known team, Sp. Pragh, is overrated on a monday with only a few matches to bet.

Enkoeping - Bunkeflo, under 2,5 goals at 2.00, 1 unit (bwin, bet down to 1,90)

This match-up is historicly low-scoring. Now their are both deep in a fierce relegation battle where a loss will be very costly. Both can live with a draw.

14:30 CET, NEC Nijmegen - Heracles, NEC -1 at 1,95 2 units

NEC are stronger at home and so are Heracles. Heracles use artifical grass in their stadium which seem to make a huge difference in their home/away performances. Last year Heracles only managed 9 points away from home. NEC lost last week, however, that was their first defeat in 7 month! They are a strong overlooked team and they have a perfect opponent today to get back to winning ways.

over 4,5 cards @ 1,85 (nordicbet) 2 units

Value is also found with over 55 booking pts (or 5,5 cards) at expekt @ 2,20, however, this would only be a 1 unit bet.

Both teams gather plenty cards H2H and against other topteams. Mike Riley is referee and does not miss many opportunities give cards.

Fredericia - AB, under 2,5 goals at 2,40

We recommend 2 units (medium stake) for this bet.

About equal value is found betting under 3 goals at 1,80.

With the NFL starting their regular season this weekend, we have taken a look at strenght and schedule of all 32 teams, and will come with a couple of predictions for total regular season wins.

Actually we do not like future bets that much, as your money are tied into a bet for way too long. However the NFL season is "only" 17 weeks long, and we see nice value in the bets below. But keep your bets low. Futures bets is more fun than serious

Baltimore Over 6 wins at 1,95 (Pinnacle). Baltimore had a disaster season last year going 5-11, but most of the defensive players are the same that went 13-3 in 2006. We expect Baltimore to bounce back, even though they are having problems at the quarterback position. We expect them to end 8-8 giving us a nice cushion to the over/under.

Pittsburgh Under 9 at 1,87 (TheGreek). Pittsburgh have a good team - but they are placed in a very competitive division, and have one of the worst schedules by any team. Winning 10 games or more seems quite unlikely with no walk-overs. We have them at 8-8 as well, giving us 7-9 and 8-8 as winners and 9-7 as a push.

Detroit Under 6,5 at 1,86 (Pinnacle). This team just sucks. They had an okay season last year, but expect them to fall back to usual standards. We expect them to go 5-11.

Tampa Bay over 8 at 1,72 (Pinnacle). Tampa have a fine team, and a very soft schedule. We have them as a 10-6 team, winning their division.

Dallas under 105 at 2,20 (TheGreek). Dallas have a great team - winning 11 games is not impossible. But they are placed in one of the toughest divisions, and also have a very tough schedule. Last year they went 13-3, but on easier schedule and without injuries to key players. We like the value in this odds, as we expect them to get a couple of injuries along the way this year.

Carolina is stated at 7,5 at most books, at around odds 1,55. This is to low an odds as we see it, as injuries at key players early might take out the value. But if you book has it stated at 8, go for the over at around odds 1,9 instead.

You might find better odds at other sportsbooks, so shop around. We have not found an odds comparison site that have this future bet for comparison.

Odds for the ryder cup to end in a tie is actually at about 13,50 at the best bookies.

Our predictions show that with the very few number of games played, the format and the actual players being quite even, the actual odds of the match ending in a tie, should be less than 10, maybe even as low as 7-8.

We therefore recommend betting on a tie. However as the actual chance of a tie still is less than 20%, maybe closer to 10%, keep the bets low and enjoy a weekend of golf