Bankroll management
Posted on March 17, 2008 by Anders Nielsen | Articles
Finding profitable bets on is one thing – betting the right amounts is another issue. The amounts placed on each bet (bankroll management) is just as important as locating value.
It is very important to us, that you do not go broke while betting our picks. We want to sell you a product that makes you a nice steady income over the long haul. You will not be able to do that without money.
As a start, you will have to define a betting bankroll. It should be separated from your everyday finances. You should never be betting with money that is supposed to pay the rent or clothes and food for your kids. But if you don´t have that kind of issues, it is still a good idea to define a bankroll, as the size of the bankroll, decides how much to bet on each pick.
Our philosophy is to bet between 0.75% and 2.25% of our bankroll.
If you bet any higher than this, you will be very like to end up broke. Even with the betting limits we have stated above there still is a small risk of going broke. However the risk is very low, as you as a start have about 60 bets in our bankroll.
We operate with a fictional bankroll of 10.000$.
Our bets are divided into three categories:
1-star bets: You should bet .75% of your bankroll on our pick, equal to 1 unit.
2-star bets: You should bet 1.5% of your bankroll on our pick, equal to 2 units.
3-star bets: You should bet 2.25% of your bankroll on our pick, equal to 3 units.
That gives bets of 75$, 150$ or 225$, with our fictional bankroll of 10.000$.
Stepping up or dropping down
We suggest you not to change the amount you bet pr. pick, before your bankroll has increased or decreased by at about 1/3 (33%).
Adjusting betting amounts as your bankroll increases or decreases will help you optimize profits and minimize risk of bankruptcy, if you hit a really bad run. The worst thing a serious sportsbettor can run out of is not luck but money.
Taking our fictional bankroll of 10,000$ as an example, you start betting 75$, 150$ or 225$ pr. bet, when your bankroll gets to about 13.500$. However you should start betting smaller, if your bankroll goes down to 10.000$ again. And if your bankroll should decrease to say 6.666$, you should downgrade your betting amounts to 50$/100$/150$ pr. Bet.
Variance
Variance in sports betting is very high. Inside the last year, we have had some enormous swings. We have had a very profitable 9-1 night betting NBA and college Basketball, but we have also had a disastrous 4-13 day betting NFL. Often these good nights come in succession and you feel invincible and ready to up the stakes. However, bad runs often come in succession as well and can be very demoralizing. These runs even out over time, but runs sometimes last longer than one may think possible.
There is no easy solution to this when betting sports. We limit our betting to mainly betting on singles to keep down variance, and avoid high variance plays like triples or more. But we are still betting on tickets that either have a value of zero to 500% (or more) at the end of the day. That’s a very bizarre form of short term investing – but it’s also a very profitable way of investing since you will have a very high rate of turnover. Hey, you might even find sportsbetting a fun and enjoyable way of investing, where you can root for the result as you watch the game on TV. We think it is a lot more fun than watching the stock market numbers change, which is like watching grass grow or paint dry compared to sportsbetting.
Turnover
If you follow our picks, and bet the amounts we suggest, you will get in at least 100 bets a month, at an average bet value of 1.5% of your bankroll. So your bankroll will be turned over at least 1.5 times a month, oftentimes more than that. Compare that to investing in a stock, which you keep for a year and then sell at a 10% premium. Your money will be placed in this single stock for the whole year.
If you follow our picks, you will be able to turn over your bankroll multiple times every year, with next to zero risk of losing your entire betting bankroll. With a 10.000$ bankroll, you should get action compared to at least 200,000$ of betting, probably more. So don´t be afraid, if we only are able to grind out 3-7% return on investment pr. bet in the long run, as our investment is not a 10.000$ stock, but betting action of more than a 200.000 dollars a year.
– Yes, at just a 3% edge per bet that’s a nice return of more than 60% a year on your initial investment!
Too good to be true? You may ask yourself “Why are Punters Paradise giving this away at merely $149 a month?”. Well, we are doing all the work anyway, and we are getting our piece of the action before it’s offered elsewhere. Why should we not profit a little extra helping you win as well – it’s free money as we see it.